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Luton vs Plymouth — League #46 2026

Luton
Lutonadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
J. Clark 89' (pen)
I. Jones 16'
T. Finn 77'
2/24/2026League #46League #46 · Quarter-finalsKenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Luton69%
×Draw18%
Plymouth13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
2.33
Plymouth
0.92

Luton creates 153% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Luton
2.67
Plymouth
0.67

allows per match

Luton
1.17
Plymouth
2.00

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Luton or draw
87%
Luton or Plymouth
82%
Draw or Plymouth
31%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
45%
Plymouth wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
90%
Luton 2+ goals
67%
Luton 3+ goals
41%
Plymouth 1+ goals
60%
Plymouth 2+ goals
23%
Plymouth 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
84%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.67 + Plymouth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Plymouth attack 0.67 + Luton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Luton scores more
69%
level
18%
Plymouth scores more
13%

Luton at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
J. ClarkLutonLuton · M
9.2

Match Events

16'
I. Jones↳ J. Richards
33'
N. Lonwijk← T. Mengi
46'
S. Morris← G. Kodua
46'
J. Johnson← M. Andersen
46'
J. MacKenzie← X. Amaechi
46'
C. Watts← B. Ibrahim
55'
Joe Edwards
65'
K. Palmer← D. van den Berg
65'
T. Finn← M. Sorinola
77'
T. Finn↳ R. Curtis
88'
Mathias Ross
89'
Conor Hazard
89'
J. ClarkPenalty
90+5'
E. Lawrence← J. Richards
90'
J. Pleguezuelo← J. Edwards

Possession

59%Luton

Shots

18Luton

Pass accuracy

58%Luton

Statistics

LutonPlymouth
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots10
5Corners5
7Fouls18
Shots
18Total Shots10
6On Target3
6Off Target6
6Blocked1
12Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
59%Possession41%
416Total Passes278
303Accurate Passes145
73%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Plymouth

Luton beat Plymouth 2-1 in League #46 on February 24, 2026.

Goals: I. Jones (16'), T. Finn (77'), J. Clark (89' pen).

Luton controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.