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Luton vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
J. Brown 55'
M. Talovierov 70'
2/19/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 31Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Luton59%
×Draw24%
Plymouth17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.71
Plymouth
0.79

Luton creates 116% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Plymouth
0.64

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Plymouth
2.02

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Plymouth+0.11scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
83%
Luton or Plymouth
76%
Draw or Plymouth
41%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
33%
Plymouth wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
82%
Luton 2+ goals
51%
Luton 3+ goals
24%
Plymouth 1+ goals
55%
Plymouth 2+ goals
19%
Plymouth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
78%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.02 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Plymouth defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Plymouth attack 0.64 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Luton scores more
59%
level
24%
Plymouth scores more
17%

Luton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
K. NaismithLutonLuton · D
7.9

Match Events

54'
J. Brown← E. Adebayo
55'
J. Brown↳ L. Nordås
62'
M. Tijani← R. Al Hajj
62'
K. Szűcs← M. Sorinola
67'
S. Baptiste← L. Walsh
70'
M. Talovierov↳ K. Szűcs
77'
Kornél Szűcs
83'
M. Alli← L. Nordås
83'
M. Andersen← M. McGuinness
87'
D. Gyabi← C. Wright
90+1'
Mustapha Bundu

Possession

60%Luton

Shots

17Luton

Pass accuracy

55%Luton

Statistics

LutonPlymouth
Overview
60%Possession40%
17Total Shots3
1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.26
10Corners2
7Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots3
2On Target1
6Off Target2
9Blocked0
13Inside Box2
4Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
322Total Passes221
208Accurate Passes120
65%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
0.61Goals Prevented0.61
Discipline
7Fouls18
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides5

Match Recap: Luton vs Plymouth

Luton and Plymouth drew 1-1 in Championship on February 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Brown (55'), M. Talovierov (70').

Luton controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.