Luton 5–1 Plymouth: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Plymouth

J. Collins 77', 45+1' (pen), 12'

J. Justin 29'

E. Lee 23'

J. Grant 89'

11/17/2018

League One · Round 18Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Luton33%

×Draw25%

Plymouth43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.57

Luton

1.34

Plymouth

1.57

Plymouth creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

2.00

1.15

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Luton

1.46

Plymouth

2.00

allows per match

Luton

1.15

Plymouth

1.22

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Luton+0.12scores more

Plymouth-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Luton or draw

57%

Luton or Plymouth

75%

Draw or Plymouth

67%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

14%

Plymouth wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

39%

Luton 3+ goals

15%

Plymouth 1+ goals

79%

Plymouth 2+ goals

46%

Plymouth 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

43%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Plymouth away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Plymouth defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Plymouth attack 2.00 + Luton defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Luton scores more

33%

level

25%

Plymouth scores more

43%

Plymouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. Collins↳ J. Justin

23'

E. Lee

29'

J. Justin↳ H. Cornick

36'

R. Taylor← J. Ness

45+1'

J. CollinsPenalty

46'

S. O'Keefe← F. Ladapo

52'

Stuart O'Keefe

73'

Graham Carey

77'

J. Collins↳ E. Lee

78'

Ruben Lameiras← G. Carey

80'

J. Grant← A. Shinnie

80'

K. LuaLua← H. Cornick

84'

A. Jarvis← J. Collins

89'

J. Grant↳ Ruben Lameiras

Luton

Plymouth

1

14

4

23

22

16

⚽

Grant

8

Fox

10

▼

Carey

7

Sarcevic

6

▼

Ness

19

▼

36

5

6

16

11

▼

Shinnie

17

Ruddock

7

Stacey

2

⚽A

Justin

19

⚽3

▼

Collins

10

⚽A

Lee

14

A

▼

Cornick

Manager: N. Jones

80'▲J. Grant←▼A. Shinnie

80'▲K. LuaLua←▼H. Cornick

84'▲A. Jarvis←▼J. Collins

Luton substitutes

18Grant25LuaLua27Jarvis1Štěch3Potts4McCormack44Sheehan

Manager: D. Adams

36'▲R. Taylor←▼J. Ness

46'▲S. O'Keefe←▼F. Ladapo

78'▲Ruben Lameiras←▼G. Carey

Plymouth substitutes

9Taylor13O'Keefe11Lameiras20Wylde21Letheren24Grant33Law