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Luton vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
J. Clark 50'
J. Richards 20'
J. Morgan 75'
4/3/2026League OneLeague One · Round 41Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw25%
Peterborough28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.58
Peterborough
1.15

Luton creates 37% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 28 away

creates per match

Luton
1.61
Peterborough
1.25

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Peterborough
1.54

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luton or draw
72%
Luton or Peterborough
75%
Draw or Peterborough
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
24%
Peterborough wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
79%
Luton 2+ goals
47%
Luton 3+ goals
21%
Peterborough 1+ goals
68%
Peterborough 2+ goals
32%
Peterborough 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
63%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.61 + Peterborough defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Peterborough attack 1.25 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
25%
Peterborough scores more
28%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
J. RichardsLutonLuton · F
7.7

Match Events

20'
J. Richards↳ K. Naismith
33'
Josh Keeley
50'
J. Clark↳ E. Lawrence
60'
B. Woods← B. Khela
60'
D. Kamara← H. Leonard
61'
B. Shofowoke← C. Hayes
65'
D. Cole← N. Wells
65'
G. Kodua← E. Lawrence
72'
D. Okagbue← T. Lees
75'
J. Morgan↳ K. Lisbie
80'
Kal Naismith
80'
Kyrell Lisbie
83'
G. Saville← D. van den Berg
83'
K. Palmer← J. Clark
90+4'
Kasey Palmer
90+3'
David Kamara

Possession

46%Luton

Shots

17Luton

Pass accuracy

48%Luton

Statistics

LutonPeterborough
Overview
46%Possession54%
17Total Shots10
7Corners4
21Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots10
6On Target3
4Off Target3
7Blocked4
15Inside Box4
2Outside Box6
Passing
46%Possession54%
364Total Passes436
272Accurate Passes347
75%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
21Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

League One: Luton 2–1 Peterborough

Luton beat Peterborough 2-1 in League One on April 3, 2026.

Goals: J. Richards (20'), J. Clark (50'), J. Morgan (75').

Peterborough controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.