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Luton vs Peterborough — Championship 2025

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
F. Onyedinma 71'
H. Cornick 68'
E. Adebayo 30'
8/7/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Luton85%
×Draw13%
Peterborough1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
2.13
Peterborough
0.10

Luton creates 2030% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Luton
1.67
Peterborough
0.20

allows per match

Luton
0.00
Peterborough
2.60

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

92%No
  • No92
  • Yes8

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–025%
2–12%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (25%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Luton or draw
99%
Luton or Peterborough
87%
Draw or Peterborough
15%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
60%
Peterborough wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
88%
Luton 2+ goals
63%
Luton 3+ goals
35%
Peterborough 1+ goals
10%
Peterborough 2+ goals
0%
Peterborough 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
99%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.67 + Peterborough defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Peterborough attack 0.20 + Luton defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Luton scores more
85%
level
13%
Peterborough scores more
1%

Luton at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
F. OnyedinmaLutonLuton · F
8.9

Match Events

16'
Frankie Kent
30'
E. Adebayo↳ F. Onyedinma
56'
Josh Knight
58'
J. Randall← J. Tomlinson
62'
E. Hamilton← J. Knight
64'
Mark Beevers
68'
H. Cornick↳ F. Onyedinma
69'
R. Edwards← F. Kent
71'
F. Onyedinma
78'
A. Muskwe← H. Cornick
82'
Carlos Gomes← F. Onyedinma
84'
Joe Ward
85'
H. Lansbury← P. Ruddock
87'
Sammie Szmodics
90+3'
James Bree

Possession

49%Luton

Shots

12Luton

Pass accuracy

51%Luton

Statistics

LutonPeterborough
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots4
7Corners2
18Fouls7
Shots
12Total Shots4
6On Target1
3Off Target1
3Blocked2
7Inside Box1
5Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
395Total Passes412
317Accurate Passes316
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls7
1Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Peterborough

Luton beat Peterborough 3-0 in Championship on August 7, 2021.

Goals: E. Adebayo (30'), H. Cornick (68'), F. Onyedinma (71').

Peterborough controlled possession (51%) and registered 4 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.