Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luton vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
J. Collins 54'
M. Pearson 90' (OG)
P. Bamford 51'
11/23/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton33%
×Draw28%
Leeds39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.14
Leeds
1.26

Leeds creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Leeds
1.58

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Leeds
0.88

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
61%
Luton or Leeds
72%
Draw or Leeds
67%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
14%
Leeds wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
68%
Luton 2+ goals
32%
Luton 3+ goals
11%
Leeds 1+ goals
72%
Leeds 2+ goals
36%
Leeds 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
46%
Leeds (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Leeds defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leeds attack 1.58 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more
33%
level
28%
Leeds scores more
39%

Leeds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
J. SheaLutonLuton · G
8.7

Match Events

51'
P. Bamford↳ B. White
53'
Luke Ayling
54'
J. Collins↳ I. Brown
59'
L. Cooper← G. Berardi
64'
Hélder Costa← J. Harrison
71'
J. Clarke← T. Roberts
75'
C. McManaman← H. Cornick
75'
K. LuaLua← I. Brown
90+1'
L. Bolton← A. Shinnie
90'
M. PearsonOwn goal

Possession

25%Luton

Shots

11Luton

Pass accuracy

42%Luton

Statistics

LutonLeeds
Overview
25%Possession75%
11Total Shots21
4Corners8
7Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots21
5On Target12
5Off Target5
1Blocked4
6Inside Box16
5Outside Box5
Passing
25%Possession75%
213Total Passes625
132Accurate Passes534
62%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
11Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Luton 1 – 2 Leeds

Leeds beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on November 23, 2019.

Goals: P. Bamford (51'), J. Collins (54'), M. Pearson (90' o.g.).

Leeds controlled possession (75%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.