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Leeds vs Luton — Championship 2018

Leeds
Leeds
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luton
Luton
S. Dallas 63'
H. Cornick 50'
6/30/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Leeds63%
×Draw23%
Luton14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.78
Luton
0.69

Leeds creates 158% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 21 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.97
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Leeds
0.53
Luton
1.59

finishing

Leeds+0.37scores more
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
86%
Leeds or Luton
77%
Draw or Luton
37%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
37%
Luton wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
83%
Leeds 2+ goals
53%
Leeds 3+ goals
26%
Luton 1+ goals
50%
Luton 2+ goals
15%
Luton 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
82%
Luton (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.53 · 35 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.97 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.78

Luton attack 0.85 + Leeds defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Leeds scores more
63%
level
23%
Luton scores more
14%

Leeds at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
S. SlugaLutonLuton · G
8.3

Match Events

2'
Callum McManaman
12'
G. Berardi← L. Cooper
46'
E. Alioski← G. Berardi
46'
H. Cornick← C. McManaman
50'
H. Cornick↳ R. Tunnicliffe
55'
Cameron Carter-Vickers
61'
Pablo Hernández← M. Klich
63'
S. Dallas↳ E. Alioski
64'
L. Bolton← D. Hylton
64'
J. Collins← M. Cranie
74'
Harry Cornick
87'
Daniel Potts
88'
James Collins
90+4'
J. Shackleton← S. Dallas

Possession

75%Leeds

Shots

23Leeds

Pass accuracy

61%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsLuton
Overview
75%Possession25%
23Total Shots3
15Corners1
9Fouls10
Shots
23Total Shots3
9On Target2
9Off Target1
5Blocked0
16Inside Box3
7Outside Box0
Passing
75%Possession25%
532Total Passes181
450Accurate Passes98
85%Pass Accuracy54%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
9Fouls10
0Yellow Cards5
1Offsides1

Leeds 1 – 1 Luton

Leeds and Luton drew 1-1 in Championship on June 30, 2020.

Goals: H. Cornick (50'), S. Dallas (63').

Leeds controlled possession (75%) and registered 23 shots to 3.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.