Luton 2–2 Gillingham: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

J. Stacey 67'

D. Hylton 45'

L. O'Neill 79'

T. Eaves 53'

3/16/2019

League One · Round 38Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton53%

×Draw24%

Gillingham23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.05

Luton

1.71

Gillingham

1.05

Luton creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 99 away

2.04

creates per match

1.17

0.93

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Luton

2.04

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luton+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Luton or draw

77%

Luton or Gillingham

76%

Draw or Gillingham

47%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

29%

Gillingham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

82%

Luton 2+ goals

51%

Luton 3+ goals

24%

Gillingham 1+ goals

65%

Gillingham 2+ goals

28%

Gillingham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

69%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.04 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Luton scores more

53%

level

24%

Gillingham scores more

23%

Luton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

D. Hylton

53'

T. Eaves↳ C. Reilly

66'

D. Potts← L. Berry

67'

J. Stacey↳ A. Shinnie

79'

L. O'Neill

80'

K. LuaLua← E. Lee

87'

J. Rees← Leonardo Lopes

90'

Brandon Hanlan

90+2'

H. Cornick← D. Hylton

Luton

Gillingham

1

Holý

12

Fuller

2

⚽

34

33

5

13

A

Reilly

17

▼

Lopes

9

⚽

10

7

36

5

6

11

A

Shinnie

8

▼

Berry

17

Ruddock

7

⚽

Stacey

2

Justin

9

⚽

▼

Hylton

19

Collins

10

▼

Lee

Manager: M. Harford

66'▲D. Potts←▼L. Berry

80'▲K. LuaLua←▼E. Lee

90+2'▲H. Cornick←▼D. Hylton

Luton substitutes

3Potts25LuaLua14Cornick12Baptiste20Moncur24Thorne40Isted

Manager: S. Lovell

87'▲J. Rees←▼Leonardo Lopes

Gillingham substitutes

24Rees3Garmston11Charles-Cook14Campbell15List21King30Hadler