Gillingham 1–3 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Gillingham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

T. Eaves 72'

E. Lee 68', 55'

A. Shinnie 25'

11/24/2018

League One · Round 19Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Gillingham31%

×Draw26%

Luton43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.46

Gillingham

1.21

Luton

1.46

Luton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.19

creates per match

1.45

1.48

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Luton

1.45

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Luton

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

57%

Gillingham or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

69%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

13%

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

70%

Gillingham 2+ goals

34%

Gillingham 3+ goals

12%

Luton 1+ goals

77%

Luton 2+ goals

43%

Luton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

42%

Luton (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Luton away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Luton defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Luton attack 1.45 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gillingham scores more

31%

level

26%

Luton scores more

43%

Luton at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Shinnie↳ H. Cornick

35'

55'

58'

61'

61'

D. Oldaker← D. Parrett

63'

B. Garmston← B. Bingham

66'

Tom Eaves

68'

E. Lee

69'

A. Sheehan← A. Shinnie

72'

T. Eaves↳ M. Byrne

84'

A. Jarvis← H. Cornick

90'

Max Ehmer

90'

L. Jones← E. Lee

Gillingham

Luton

36

5

6

16

11

⚽

▼

17

7

2

19

A

Collins

10

⚽2

▼

Lee

14

A

▼

1

6

12

2

33

A

Byrne

8

▼

Parrett

16

▼

Bingham

5

Ehmer

24

▼

Rees

15

List

9

⚽

Eaves

Manager: S. Lovell

61'▲J. Parker←▼J. Rees

61'▲D. Oldaker←▼D. Parrett

63'▲B. Garmston←▼B. Bingham

Gillingham substitutes

14Parker20Oldaker3Garmston13Reilly23Mbo30Hadler34Ogilvie

Manager: N. Jones

69'▲A. Sheehan←▼A. Shinnie

84'▲A. Jarvis←▼H. Cornick

90'▲L. Jones←▼E. Lee

Luton substitutes

44Sheehan27Jarvis28Jones1Štěch3Potts4McCormack18Grant