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Luton vs Fulham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fulham
Fulham
E. Adebayo 62'
A. Mitrović 19'
12/11/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton33%
×Draw27%
Fulham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.14
Fulham
1.29

Fulham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 46 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Fulham
1.54

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Fulham
0.96

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
60%
Luton or Fulham
73%
Draw or Fulham
67%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
13%
Fulham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
68%
Luton 2+ goals
32%
Luton 3+ goals
11%
Fulham 1+ goals
72%
Fulham 2+ goals
37%
Fulham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
45%
Fulham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fulham attack 1.54 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more
33%
level
27%
Fulham scores more
40%

Fulham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
S. BradleyLutonLuton · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
A. Mitrović
42'
Allan Campbell
62'
E. Adebayo↳ J. Bree
76'
F. Carvalho← N. Kebano
76'
J. Onomah← T. Cairney
78'
F. Onyedinma← A. Muskwe
78'
G. Osho← A. Campbell
87'
Rodrigo Muniz← H. Wilson

Possession

34%Luton

Shots

7Luton

Pass accuracy

46%Luton

Statistics

LutonFulham
Overview
34%Possession66%
7Total Shots11
2Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots11
1On Target6
4Off Target2
2Blocked3
6Inside Box7
1Outside Box4
Passing
34%Possession66%
317Total Passes622
230Accurate Passes529
73%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
6Offsides2

Championship: Luton 1–1 Fulham

Luton and Fulham drew 1-1 in Championship on December 11, 2021.

Goals: A. Mitrović (19'), E. Adebayo (62').

Fulham controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.