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Luton vs Fulham — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Fulham
Fulham
H. Cornick 84'
J. Collins 28'
K. LuaLua 5'
B. Reid 90+4', 9'
A. Mitrović 77'
12/26/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Luton33%
×Draw27%
Fulham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.14
Fulham
1.29

Fulham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 46 away

creates per match

Luton
1.31
Fulham
1.54

allows per match

Luton
1.04
Fulham
0.96

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
60%
Luton or Fulham
73%
Draw or Fulham
67%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
13%
Fulham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
68%
Luton 2+ goals
32%
Luton 3+ goals
11%
Fulham 1+ goals
72%
Fulham 2+ goals
37%
Fulham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
45%
Fulham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 113 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.31 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fulham attack 1.54 + Luton defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more
33%
level
27%
Fulham scores more
40%

Fulham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
B. ReidFulhamFulham · F
8.7

Match Events

5'
K. LuaLua↳ J. Collins
9'
B. Reid↳ Ivan Cavaleiro
28'
J. Collins↳ J. Bree
65'
H. Cornick← C. McManaman
70'
A. Knockaert← H. Reed
75'
L. Jones← K. LuaLua
76'
N. Kebano← Ivan Cavaleiro
77'
A. Mitrović↳ A. Knockaert
84'
H. Cornick
89'
A. Kamara← J. Bryan
90+4'
B. Reid

Possession

35%Luton

Shots

10Luton

Pass accuracy

44%Luton

Statistics

LutonFulham
Overview
35%Possession65%
10Total Shots18
6Corners8
9Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots18
3On Target11
6Off Target2
1Blocked5
8Inside Box10
2Outside Box8
Passing
35%Possession65%
256Total Passes471
162Accurate Passes381
63%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
8Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Offsides1

Luton 3 – 3 Fulham

Luton and Fulham drew 3-3 in Championship on December 26, 2019.

Goals: K. LuaLua (5'), B. Reid (9', 90+4'), J. Collins (28'), A. Mitrović (77'), H. Cornick (84').

Fulham controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.