Luton 3–2 Exeter City: Result & Stats | League One

Luton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Exeter City

H. Odoffin 45'

J. Clark 29' (pen)

K. Palmer 13'

I. Niskanen 49'

R. Cole 25'

3/17/2026

League One · Round 38Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Luton55%

×Draw23%

Exeter City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.05

Luton

1.79

Exeter City

1.05

Luton creates 70% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.49

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Luton

1.49

Exeter City

0.93

allows per match

Luton

1.17

Exeter City

2.09

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Luton+0.15scores more

Exeter City+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Luton or draw

78%

Luton or Exeter City

77%

Draw or Exeter City

45%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

31%

Exeter City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

83%

Luton 2+ goals

53%

Luton 3+ goals

26%

Exeter City 1+ goals

65%

Exeter City 2+ goals

28%

Exeter City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

71%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

Exeter City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.09 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.49 + Exeter City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.79

Exeter City attack 0.93 + Luton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Luton scores more

55%

level

23%

Exeter City scores more

22%

Luton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

I. Niskanen

Exeter City · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

K. Palmer↳ L. Walsh

25'

R. Cole

29'

J. ClarkPenalty

45+4'

Reece Cole

45'

H. Odoffin↳ G. Saville

49'

I. Niskanen↳ T. Tuterov

55'

J. Wareham← J. Magennis

55'

65'

72'

75'

75'

J. Richards← K. Palmer

80'

K. McDonald← E. Brierley

80'

S. Cox← T. Tuterov

82'

Jack McMillan

90+2'

D. van den Berg← J. Clark

90+5'

S. Sandal← G. Saville

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonExeter

Overview

46%Possession54%

16Total Shots8

7Corners2

13Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

14Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

380Total Passes449

298Accurate Passes363

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0