Exeter City 1–0 Luton: Result & Stats | League One

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

P. Sweeney 50'

1/1/2026

League One · Round 24St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Exeter City31%

×Draw21%

Luton48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

2.06

Exeter City

1.64

Luton

2.06

Luton creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.54

creates per match

1.71

2.41

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Exeter City

1.54

Luton

1.71

allows per match

Exeter City

2.41

Luton

1.73

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Exeter City+0.02on par

Luton-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

52%

Exeter City or Luton

79%

Draw or Luton

69%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

15%

Luton wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

81%

Exeter City 2+ goals

49%

Exeter City 3+ goals

23%

Luton 1+ goals

87%

Luton 2+ goals

61%

Luton 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

40%

Luton (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.54, concedes 2.41 · 9 matches

Luton away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.73 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.54 + Luton defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.64

Luton attack 1.71 + Exeter City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Exeter City scores more

31%

level

21%

Luton scores more

48%

Luton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Sweeney

Exeter City · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

29'

50'

62'

62'

63'

C. Mendes← S. Cox

67'

Jacob Brown

70'

R. Cole← J. Doyle-Hayes

76'

L. Fanne← G. Saville

76'

Z. Nelson← R. Walters

78'

Ethan Brierley

88'

L. Woodhouse← J. Aitchison

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ExeterLuton

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots7

2.07Expected Goals (xG)0.23

6Corners1

12Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots7

5On Target0

4Off Target4

7Blocked3

12Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

350Total Passes580

268Accurate Passes501

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1