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Luton vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
I. Jones 72'
C. Morris 59'
T. Aasgaard 49'
G. Tanner 52'
4/21/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Luton46%
×Draw28%
Bristol City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.35
Bristol City
0.95

Luton creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

Luton
1.34
Bristol City
1.05

allows per match

Luton
0.84
Bristol City
1.35

finishing

Luton-0.34scores less
Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Bristol City
72%
Draw or Bristol City
54%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
22%
Bristol City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
74%
Luton 2+ goals
39%
Luton 3+ goals
15%
Bristol City 1+ goals
61%
Bristol City 2+ goals
25%
Bristol City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.84 · 16 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.34 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Luton defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luton scores more
46%
level
28%
Bristol City scores more
26%

Luton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. AasgaardLutonLuton · F
7.7

Match Events

20'
H. Roberts← C. Pring
22'
Ross McCrorie
49'
T. Aasgaard↳ C. Makosso
52'
G. Tanner
59'
C. Morris↳ T. Mengi
60'
S. Armstrong← M. Bird
60'
G. Earthy← N. Wells
67'
R. Burke← C. Makosso
72'
I. Jones
76'
S. Twine← A. Mehmeti
76'
E. Morrison← R. McCrorie
82'
George Earthy
82'
S. Baptiste← Lamine Fanne
83'
Jason Knight

Possession

36%Luton

Shots

16Luton

Pass accuracy

46%Luton

Statistics

LutonBristol
Overview
36%Possession64%
16Total Shots12
1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.70
3Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots12
7On Target4
5Off Target6
4Blocked2
12Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
36%Possession64%
252Total Passes473
178Accurate Passes397
71%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.87Goals Prevented-0.87
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Bristol City

Luton beat Bristol City 3-1 in Championship on April 21, 2025.

Goals: T. Aasgaard (49'), G. Tanner (52'), C. Morris (59'), I. Jones (72').

Bristol City controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 16.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.