Luton 2–1 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

E. Adebayo 68'

T. Lockyer 42'

A. Weimann 56'

1/25/2022

Championship · Round 24Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton46%

×Draw27%

Bristol City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.99

Luton

1.37

Bristol City

0.99

Luton creates 38% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

1.39

creates per match

1.05

0.93

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Bristol City

1.05

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Bristol City

1.35

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Bristol City-0.08on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

73%

Luton or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

54%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

22%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

75%

Luton 2+ goals

40%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Bristol City 1+ goals

63%

Bristol City 2+ goals

26%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

63%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bristol City attack 1.05 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luton scores more

46%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

27%

Luton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

T. Lockyer

Luton · D

8.2

Match Events

24'

Luke Berry

42'

T. Lockyer↳ J. Bree

56'

A. Weimann↳ A. Semenyo

60'

A. Campbell← L. Berry

61'

F. Onyedinma← A. Muskwe

62'

67'

68'

76'

76'

J. Williams← C. ODowda

85'

T. Conway← J. Dasilva

87'

P. Kioso← T. Lockyer

90+7'

Peter Kioso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonBristol

Overview

41%Possession59%

8Total Shots12

8Corners9

11Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target3

3Off Target4

2Blocked5

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

288Total Passes416

155Accurate Passes290

54%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3