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Luton vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
K. Dewsbury-Hall 68'
G. Rea 17'
S. Bradley 61' (OG)
12/29/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton45%
×Draw27%
Bristol City28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.36
Bristol City
1.02

Luton creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Bristol City
1.10

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Bristol City
1.34

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
72%
Luton or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
21%
Bristol City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
74%
Luton 2+ goals
39%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Bristol City 1+ goals
64%
Bristol City 2+ goals
27%
Bristol City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
61%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more
45%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
28%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
G. ReaLutonLuton · M
8.3

Match Events

17'
G. Rea↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall
33'
Ryan Tunnicliffe
59'
F. Diedhiou← H. Massengo
61'
S. BradleyOwn goal
64'
D. Potts← P. Ruddock
64'
K. LuaLua← R. Tunnicliffe
68'
K. Dewsbury-Hall
73'
Antoine Semenyo
76'
A. Mariappa← J. Hunt
84'
J. Clark← H. Cornick
88'
S. Bell← N. Wells

Possession

45%Luton

Shots

11Luton

Pass accuracy

49%Luton

Statistics

LutonBristol
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots8
6Corners3
15Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots8
5On Target1
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
321Total Passes401
207Accurate Passes269
64%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Luton vs Bristol City

Luton beat Bristol City 2-1 in Championship on December 29, 2020.

Goals: G. Rea (17'), S. Bradley (61' o.g.), K. Dewsbury-Hall (68').

Bristol City controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.