Luton 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

A. Williams 90+5' (OG)

H. Cornick 62'

P. Ruddock 56'

10/19/2019

Championship · Round 12Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton45%

×Draw27%

Bristol City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Luton

1.36

Bristol City

1.02

Luton creates 33% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

1.39

creates per match

1.10

0.93

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Luton

1.39

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Luton

0.93

Bristol City

1.34

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

72%

Luton or Bristol City

73%

Draw or Bristol City

55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

39%

Luton 3+ goals

16%

Bristol City 1+ goals

64%

Bristol City 2+ goals

27%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

61%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more

45%

level

27%

Bristol City scores more

28%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

I. Brown

Luton · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

L. Bolton← J. Bree

51'

Ryan Tunnicliffe

56'

P. Ruddock↳ J. Collins

58'

C. O'Dowda← T. Moore

59'

N. Eliasson← K. Palmer

62'

H. Cornick↳ I. Brown

63'

Famara Diédhiou

64'

Rodri← F. Diedhiou

76'

C. McManaman← I. Brown

84'

Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu

88'

K. LuaLua← H. Cornick

90'

Jack Hunt

90+5'

A. WilliamsOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonBristol

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots10

8Corners7

10Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target2

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

368Total Passes431

266Accurate Passes332

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2