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Luton vs Bolton — League One 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bolton
Bolton
G. Kodua 83'
K. Dempsey 8'
11/29/2025League OneLeague One · Round 18Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Luton39%
×Draw25%
Bolton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.44
Bolton
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Luton
1.49
Bolton
1.54

allows per match

Luton
1.17
Bolton
1.39

finishing

Luton+0.15scores more
Bolton-0.36scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Bolton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Luton or draw
65%
Luton or Bolton
75%
Draw or Bolton
61%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
19%
Bolton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
76%
Luton 2+ goals
42%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Bolton 1+ goals
74%
Bolton 2+ goals
39%
Bolton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
53%
Bolton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 11 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.49 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bolton attack 1.54 + Luton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luton scores more
39%
level
25%
Bolton scores more
35%

Luton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
H. OdoffinLutonLuton · M
8.2

Match Events

8'
K. Dempsey↳ J. Osei-Tutu
53'
Xavier Simons
57'
Nigel Cello Lonwijk
61'
Josh Dacres-Cogley
64'
G. Kodua← J. Brown
70'
Xavier Simons
70'
Xavier Simons
74'
S. Dalby← M. Burstow
74'
E. Erhahon← K. Dempsey
79'
M. Forss← A. Cozier-Duberry
80'
R. Taylor← J. Osei-Tutu
82'
M. Alli← N. Lonwijk
82'
S. Morris← L. Fanne
83'
G. Kodua↳ M. Alli
90+1'
J. McAtee← J. Dacres-Cogley

Possession

55%Luton

Shots

19Luton

Pass accuracy

50%Luton

Statistics

LutonBolton
Overview
55%Possession45%
19Total Shots8
1.08Expected Goals (xG)1.27
13Corners2
8Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots8
4On Target1
6Off Target5
9Blocked2
11Inside Box5
8Outside Box3
Passing
55%Possession45%
420Total Passes366
327Accurate Passes284
78%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

League One: Luton 1–1 Bolton

Luton and Bolton drew 1-1 in League One on November 29, 2025.

Goals: K. Dempsey (8'), G. Kodua (83').

Luton controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.