Bolton vs Luton — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 11+ matches
Bolton41%
Luton36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 12 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Bolton ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Bolton at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.44 · 12 matches
Luton away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.67 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Bolton attack 1.84 + Luton defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75
Luton attack 1.79 + Bolton defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Bolton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Lincoln
CardiffBolton
Stockport County
Bradford
StevenageLuton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield Town
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton Albion
Peterborough
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter City
Port Vale
Rotherham
NorthamptonIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Bolton host Luton on Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Bolton vs Luton
Luton beat Bolton 3-2 in League One on May 2, 2026.
Goals: J. Clark (15' pen), J. Osei-Tutu (20'), I. Cissoko (45'), H. Odoffin (62'), S. Morris (90').
Bolton controlled possession (56%) and registered 24 shots to 12.
The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.