Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Luton vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barnet
Barnet
J. Collins 67'
D. Hylton 47'
3/24/2018League TwoLeague Two · Round 39Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Luton47%
×Draw26%
Barnet26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.46
Barnet
1.02

Luton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 62 away

creates per match

Luton
1.46
Barnet
1.27

allows per match

Luton
0.77
Barnet
1.47

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Barnet+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luton or draw
74%
Luton or Barnet
74%
Draw or Barnet
53%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
23%
Barnet wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
77%
Luton 2+ goals
43%
Luton 3+ goals
18%
Barnet 1+ goals
64%
Barnet 2+ goals
27%
Barnet 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
64%
Barnet (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.47 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.46 + Barnet defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barnet attack 1.27 + Luton defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luton scores more
47%
level
26%
Barnet scores more
26%

Luton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
D. Hylton↳ D. Potts
55'
S. Akinola← A. Blackman
62'
Richard Brindley
67'
S. Coulthirst← J. Taylor
67'
J. Collins↳ L. Berry
76'
John Akinde
79'
Tutonda
81'
J. Akpa Akpro← R. Brindley
88'
G. Rea← A. Shinnie
90+5'
J. Stacey← O. Lee
90'
J. Jervis← D. Hylton

Possession

60%Luton

Shots

15Luton

Statistics

LutonBarnet
Overview
60%Possession40%
15Total Shots6
7Corners3
12Fouls22
Shots
15Total Shots6
9On Target2
6Off Target4
Passing
60%Possession40%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls22
0Red Cards0
6Offsides0

Luton 2 – 0 Barnet

Luton beat Barnet 2-0 in League Two on March 24, 2018.

Goals: D. Hylton (47'), J. Collins (67').

Luton controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton.