Barnet 1–0 Luton: Result & Stats | League Two

Barnet

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

J. Taylor 90+1'

8/12/2017

League Two · Round 2The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Barnet40%

×Draw28%

Luton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.10

Barnet

1.25

Luton

1.10

Barnet creates 14% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 16 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Barnet

1.37

Luton

1.00

allows per match

Barnet

1.21

Luton

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par

Luton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

68%

Barnet or Luton

72%

Draw or Luton

60%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

17%

Luton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

71%

Barnet 2+ goals

36%

Barnet 3+ goals

13%

Luton 1+ goals

67%

Luton 2+ goals

30%

Luton 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

55%

Luton (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Luton away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 1.37 + Luton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Luton attack 1.00 + Barnet defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barnet scores more

40%

level

28%

Luton scores more

32%

Barnet at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

C. Clough← E. Johnson

20'

G. Rea← S. Cuthbert

36'

J. Taylor← H. Taylor

53'

Jack Taylor

71'

W. Fonguck← C. Weston

71'

81'

83'

89'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BarnetLuton

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots9

4Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots9

3On Target3

1Off Target4

3Blocked2

1Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Barnet vs Luton

Barnet beat Luton 1-0 in League Two on August 12, 2017.

Goals: J. Taylor (90+1').

Luton controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.

Barnet vs Luton — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Barnet vs Luton