Lusitânia Lourosa 2–2 Chaves: Result & Stats

Lusitânia Lourosa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Chaves

8/16/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 2Estádio Luís Filipe Menezes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa33%

×Draw28%

Chaves40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitânia LourosaExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.27

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.13

Chaves

1.27

Chaves creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 80 away

1.11

creates per match

1.26

1.28

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.11

Chaves

1.26

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.28

Chaves

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Chaves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw

60%

Lusitânia Lourosa or Chaves

72%

Draw or Chaves

67%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

13%

Chaves wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

68%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

31%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

11%

Chaves 1+ goals

72%

Chaves 2+ goals

36%

Chaves 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

45%

Chaves (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.15 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.11 + Chaves defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Chaves attack 1.26 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

33%

level

28%

Chaves scores more

40%

Chaves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff