Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chaves vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Chaves
Chaves
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
10/20/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chaves35%
×Draw34%
Lusitânia Lourosa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chaves
0.90
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chaves
1.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.00

allows per match

Chaves
0.67
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.80

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Chaves or draw
69%
Chaves or Lusitânia Lourosa
66%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
65%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+
12%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals
59%
Chaves 2+ goals
23%
Chaves 3+ goals
6%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
56%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
20%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)
53%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.00 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.00 + Chaves defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Chaves scores more
35%
level
34%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
31%

Chaves at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Chaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chaves 2 – 0 Lusitânia Lourosa

Chaves beat Lusitânia Lourosa 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Chaves.