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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
4/9/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 3Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa50%
×Draw26%
Canelas 201023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.48
Canelas 2010
0.91

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.89
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
77%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Canelas 2010
74%
Draw or Canelas 2010
50%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
25%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
77%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
43%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
19%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
60%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
23%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
68%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
50%
level
26%
Canelas 2010 scores more
23%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Canelas 2010

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Canelas 2010 1-0 in Liga 3 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.