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Canelas 2010 vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Liga 3 2021

Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
10/1/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 7Estádio Clube Futebol Canelas 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Canelas 201039%
×Draw27%
Lusitânia Lourosa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canelas 2010
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 46 away

creates per match

Canelas 2010
1.40
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.02

allows per match

Canelas 2010
1.38
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

finishing

Canelas 2010+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canelas 2010 ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Canelas 2010 or draw
66%
Canelas 2010 or Lusitânia Lourosa
73%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
61%

Winning margin

Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
17%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Canelas 2010 1+ goals
73%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
37%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
14%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
70%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
34%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
53%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canelas 2010 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.38 · 42 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canelas 2010 attack 1.40 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Canelas 2010 scores more
39%
level
27%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
34%

Canelas 2010 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Canelas 2010 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Canelas 2010 vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Canelas 2010 2-0 in Liga 3 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Futebol Canelas 2010 in Vila Nova de Gaia.