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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Atlético CP — Liga 3 2021

Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético CP
Atlético CP
3/17/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 6Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa48%
×Draw26%
Atlético CP25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.48
Atlético CP
0.99

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
1.78
Atlético CP
1.09

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa
0.89
Atlético CP
1.17

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par
Atlético CP+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Atlético CP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw
75%
Lusitânia Lourosa or Atlético CP
74%
Draw or Atlético CP
52%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
24%
Atlético CP wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
77%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
43%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
19%
Atlético CP 1+ goals
63%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
26%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
66%
Atlético CP (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Atlético CP away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Atlético CP defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético CP attack 1.09 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
48%
level
26%
Atlético CP scores more
25%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lusitânia Lourosa 3 – 1 Atlético CP

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Atlético CP 3-1 in Liga 3 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.