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Atlético CP vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Liga 3 2021

Atlético CP
Atlético CP
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lusitânia Lourosa
Lusitânia Lourosa
5/12/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 13Estádio Da Tapadinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Atlético CP42%
×Draw28%
Lusitânia Lourosa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético CP
1.27
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.01

Atlético CP creates 26% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 46 away

creates per match

Atlético CP
1.33
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.02

allows per match

Atlético CP
1.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.20

finishing

Atlético CP+0.00on par
Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético CP ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético CP or draw
71%
Atlético CP or Lusitânia Lourosa
72%
Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa
58%

Winning margin

Atlético CP wins by 2+
19%
Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético CP 1+ goals
72%
Atlético CP 2+ goals
36%
Atlético CP 3+ goals
14%
Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals
64%
Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals
27%
Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético CP (draw refunded)
59%
Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético CP at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 46 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético CP attack 1.33 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Atlético CP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético CP scores more
42%
level
28%
Lusitânia Lourosa scores more
29%

Atlético CP at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético CP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético CP vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Atlético CP beat Lusitânia Lourosa 1-0 in Liga 3 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Da Tapadinha in Lisboa.