Lusitânia Lourosa 1–2 Academico Viseu

Lusitânia Lourosa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Academico Viseu

Nuninho 43'

S. Petkov 78'

Andre Clovis 70'

9/24/2023

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa51%

×Draw21%

Academico Viseu27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitânia LourosaExpected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.45

Lusitânia Lourosa

2.05

Academico Viseu

1.45

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

2.10

0.80

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

3.00

Academico Viseu

2.10

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

0.80

Academico Viseu

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw

73%

Lusitânia Lourosa or Academico Viseu

79%

Draw or Academico Viseu

49%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

30%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

87%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

61%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

33%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

77%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

42%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

65%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 3.00 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Academico Viseu attack 2.10 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

51%

level

21%

Academico Viseu scores more

27%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Nuninho

70'

Andre Clovis

78'

S. Petkov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff