Academico Viseu 3–2 Lusitânia Lourosa

Academico Viseu

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lusitânia Lourosa

A. Zamora 85', 30'

Andre Clovis 62'

Fabinho 19'

Arsenio 13' (pen)

11/4/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 10Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Academico Viseu44%

×Draw25%

Lusitânia Lourosa31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Academico Viseu

1.52

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.25

Academico Viseu creates 22% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 18 away

1.27

creates per match

1.39

1.10

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.27

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.39

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.10

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

69%

Academico Viseu or Lusitânia Lourosa

75%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

56%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

22%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

78%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

45%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

20%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

71%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

36%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

58%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.39 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

44%

level

25%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

31%

Academico Viseu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

A. Zamora

Academico Viseu · M

8.5

Match Events

10'

Igor Milioransa

13'

ArsenioPenalty

15'

Arsénio Nunes

18'

Tiago Cerveira

19'

Fabinho↳ T. Cerveira

22'

G. Costa← C. Kahraman

30'

A. Zamora

62'

Andre Clovis

65'

André ClóvisGoal confirmed

65'

L. Gohi← Joao Guilherme

65'

G. Braga← Arsenio

65'

Tiago Dias← T. Cerveira

72'

Danny← M. Teixeira

76'

Miguel PereiraGoal cancelled

85'

A. Zamora↳ L. Gohi

87'

Pedro Barcelos← A. Zamora

87'

F. Do Marcolino← Fabinho

87'

Joao Vasco← T. Mesquita

90+6'

Gu Costa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AcademicoLusitânia

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots15

5Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots15

5On Target5

7Off Target5

3Blocked5

12Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

292Total Passes442

247Accurate Passes385

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 3–2 Lusitânia Lourosa

Academico Viseu beat Lusitânia Lourosa 3-2 in Segunda Liga on November 4, 2025.

Goals: Arsenio (13' pen), Fabinho (19'), A. Zamora (30', 85'), Andre Clovis (62').

Lusitânia Lourosa controlled possession (60%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.

Academico Viseu vs Lusitânia Lourosa — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 3–2 Lusitânia Lourosa