Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Academica: Result & Stats

Lusitânia Lourosa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Academica

Jefferson Nem 90+2'

Rúben Gonçalves 8'

Stitch 14'

2/24/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 3Estádio do Lusitânia FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Lusitânia Lourosa44%

×Draw25%

Academica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lusitânia LourosaExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.50

Academica

1.21

Lusitânia Lourosa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

1.78

creates per match

1.52

0.89

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.78

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Lusitânia Lourosa

0.89

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lusitânia Lourosa ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lusitânia Lourosa or draw

69%

Lusitânia Lourosa or Academica

75%

Draw or Academica

56%

Winning margin

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

22%

Academica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

78%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

44%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

19%

Academica 1+ goals

70%

Academica 2+ goals

34%

Academica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

59%

Academica (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lusitânia Lourosa at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.78 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Academica attack 1.52 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

44%

level

25%

Academica scores more

31%

Lusitânia Lourosa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lusitânia Lourosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

39'

49'

69'

Diogo Pereira← Diogo Rosado

71'

T. Veiga

77'

Hugo Seco← João Silva

77'

N. Obiora← Aílson Tavares

77'

João Victor← J. Perea

82'

G. Zakpa← Fábio Fortes

82'

Sérgio Ribeiro← Mika Borges

86'

André Salvador← Vasco Gomes

86'

João Resende← Lucas

90+2'

Nem Jefferson

90+4'

David Santos← Rúben Gonçalves

90+2'

Jefferson Nem

Lusitânia

Academica

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jorginho

69'▲Diogo Pereira←▼Diogo Rosado

82'▲G. Zakpa←▼Fábio Fortes

82'▲Sérgio Ribeiro←▼Mika Borges

90+4'▲David Santos←▼Rúben Gonçalves

Lusitânia Lourosa substitutes

PereiraZakpaRibeiroSantos

Manager: Tiago Ribeiro

77'▲Hugo Seco←▼João Silva

77'▲N. Obiora←▼Aílson Tavares

77'▲João Victor←▼J. Perea

86'▲André Salvador←▼Vasco Gomes

86'▲João Resende←▼Lucas

Academica substitutes

SecoObioraVictorSalvadorResende

Liga 3: Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Academica

Lusitânia Lourosa beat Academica 2-1 in Liga 3 on February 24, 2024.

Goals: Rúben Gonçalves (8'), Stitch (14'), Jefferson Nem (90+2').

The match was played at Estádio do Lusitânia FC in Lourosa.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Academica — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Academica