Academica 1–0 Lusitânia Lourosa: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lusitânia Lourosa

4/20/2024

Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 10Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Academica42%

×Draw28%

Lusitânia Lourosa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchLusitânia Lourosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.04

Academica

1.27

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.04

Academica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

1.05

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Academica

1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.02

allows per match

Academica

1.05

Lusitânia Lourosa

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Lusitânia Lourosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Lusitânia Lourosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Academica or draw

70%

Academica or Lusitânia Lourosa

72%

Draw or Lusitânia Lourosa

58%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

19%

Lusitânia Lourosa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

72%

Academica 2+ goals

36%

Academica 3+ goals

14%

Lusitânia Lourosa 1+ goals

65%

Lusitânia Lourosa 2+ goals

28%

Lusitânia Lourosa 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

58%

Lusitânia Lourosa (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Lusitânia Lourosa away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Lusitânia Lourosa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lusitânia Lourosa attack 1.02 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academica scores more

42%

level

28%

Lusitânia Lourosa scores more

30%

Academica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff