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Lushnja vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Lushnja
Lushnja
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
10/23/20211st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lushnja48%
×Draw27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lushnja
1.43
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.97

Lushnja creates 47% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 51 away

creates per match

Lushnja
1.39
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Lushnja
1.07
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Lushnja+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lushnja ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lushnja or draw
74%
Lushnja or Besëlidhja Lezhë
73%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
52%

Winning margin

Lushnja wins by 2+
23%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lushnja 1+ goals
76%
Lushnja 2+ goals
42%
Lushnja 3+ goals
17%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
62%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
25%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lushnja (draw refunded)
65%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lushnja at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.07 · 101 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lushnja attack 1.39 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Lushnja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lushnja scores more
48%
level
27%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
26%

Lushnja at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lushnja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lushnja vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Lushnja beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-0 in 1st Division on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Roza Haxhiu in Lushnjë.