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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Lushnja — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lushnja
Lushnja
2/26/20221st Division1st Division · Round 21Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë49%
×Draw25%
Lushnja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.59
Lushnja
1.08

Besëlidhja Lezhë creates 47% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 99 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Lushnja
0.88

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Lushnja
1.58

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Lushnja+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Lushnja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
74%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Lushnja
75%
Draw or Lushnja
51%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
25%
Lushnja wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
80%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
47%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
21%
Lushnja 1+ goals
66%
Lushnja 2+ goals
29%
Lushnja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
66%
Lushnja (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Lushnja away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.58 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Lushnja defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.59

Lushnja attack 0.88 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
49%
level
25%
Lushnja scores more
26%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Lushnja

Besëlidhja Lezhë and Lushnja drew 2-2 in 1st Division on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.