Luparense 3–1 Lavis: Result & Stats

Luparense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Lavis

10/27/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luparense69%

×Draw19%

Lavis12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuparenseExpected goals in this matchLavis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.81

Luparense

2.21

Lavis

0.81

Luparense creates 173% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

0.63

0.99

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Luparense

1.58

Lavis

0.63

allows per match

Luparense

0.99

Lavis

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par

Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Lavis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Luparense or draw

88%

Luparense or Lavis

81%

Draw or Lavis

31%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+

45%

Lavis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals

89%

Luparense 2+ goals

65%

Luparense 3+ goals

38%

Lavis 1+ goals

56%

Lavis 2+ goals

19%

Lavis 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)

85%

Lavis (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.21

Lavis attack 0.63 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Luparense scores more

69%

level

19%

Lavis scores more

12%

Luparense at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff