Lavis 0–2 Luparense: Result & Stats

Lavis

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Luparense

3/2/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis24%

×Draw25%

Luparense51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LavisExpected goals in this matchLuparense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.58

Lavis

0.99

Luparense

1.58

Luparense creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

0.68

creates per match

1.21

1.95

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Lavis

0.68

Luparense

1.21

allows per match

Lavis

1.95

Luparense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par

Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Luparense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lavis or draw

49%

Lavis or Luparense

75%

Draw or Luparense

76%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+

8%

Luparense wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals

63%

Lavis 2+ goals

26%

Lavis 3+ goals

8%

Luparense 1+ goals

79%

Luparense 2+ goals

47%

Luparense 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)

32%

Luparense (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.99

Luparense attack 1.21 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lavis scores more

24%

level

25%

Luparense scores more

51%

Luparense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff