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Luparense vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
1 – 0
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
10/10/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Luparense47%
×Draw26%
Delta Porto Tolle27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.48
Delta Porto Tolle
1.06

Luparense creates 40% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 30 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
73%
Luparense or Delta Porto Tolle
74%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
53%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
23%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
77%
Luparense 2+ goals
43%
Luparense 3+ goals
19%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
65%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
29%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
63%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Luparense scores more
47%
level
26%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
27%

Luparense at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luparense vs Delta Porto Tolle

Luparense beat Delta Porto Tolle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.