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Delta Porto Tolle vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
2/20/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle35%
×Draw26%
Luparense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Luparense
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
61%
Delta Porto Tolle or Luparense
74%
Draw or Luparense
65%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
15%
Luparense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
72%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
37%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
14%
Luparense 1+ goals
75%
Luparense 2+ goals
40%
Luparense 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
47%
Luparense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Luparense attack 1.21 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
35%
level
26%
Luparense scores more
39%

Luparense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delta Porto Tolle vs Luparense

Delta Porto Tolle and Luparense drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari in Porto Tolle.