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Luparense vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
10/19/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Luparense45%
×Draw27%
Cjarlins Muzane29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.41
Cjarlins Muzane
1.07

Luparense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
71%
Luparense or Cjarlins Muzane
73%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
55%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
21%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
76%
Luparense 2+ goals
41%
Luparense 3+ goals
17%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
66%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
29%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
61%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luparense scores more
45%
level
27%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
29%

Luparense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luparense vs Cjarlins Muzane

Luparense and Cjarlins Muzane drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.