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Cjarlins Muzane vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Luparense
Luparense
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane39%
×Draw27%
Luparense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.33
Luparense
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 101 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
66%
Cjarlins Muzane or Luparense
73%
Draw or Luparense
61%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
18%
Luparense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
74%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
38%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
15%
Luparense 1+ goals
71%
Luparense 2+ goals
35%
Luparense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
53%
Luparense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Luparense attack 1.21 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
39%
level
27%
Luparense scores more
34%

Cjarlins Muzane at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cjarlins Muzane 2–1 Luparense

Cjarlins Muzane beat Luparense 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.