Luparense 1–1 Caravaggio: Result & Stats

Luparense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Caravaggio

12/22/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luparense48%

×Draw26%

Caravaggio26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LuparenseExpected goals in this matchCaravaggio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Luparense

1.48

Caravaggio

1.02

Luparense creates 45% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

1.58

creates per match

1.05

0.99

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Luparense

1.58

Caravaggio

1.05

allows per match

Luparense

0.99

Caravaggio

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Caravaggio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw

74%

Luparense or Caravaggio

74%

Draw or Caravaggio

52%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+

24%

Caravaggio wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals

77%

Luparense 2+ goals

43%

Luparense 3+ goals

19%

Caravaggio 1+ goals

64%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

27%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)

65%

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Luparense scores more

48%

level

26%

Caravaggio scores more

26%

Luparense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff