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Caravaggio vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caravaggio
Caravaggio
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
5/4/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 38Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Caravaggio34%
×Draw27%
Luparense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caravaggio
1.21
Luparense
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Caravaggio
1.11
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Caravaggio
1.42
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Caravaggio+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caravaggio ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caravaggio or draw
61%
Caravaggio or Luparense
73%
Draw or Luparense
66%

Winning margin

Caravaggio wins by 2+
14%
Luparense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Caravaggio 1+ goals
70%
Caravaggio 2+ goals
34%
Caravaggio 3+ goals
12%
Luparense 1+ goals
73%
Luparense 2+ goals
38%
Luparense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Caravaggio (draw refunded)
47%
Luparense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caravaggio at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caravaggio attack 1.11 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Luparense attack 1.21 + Caravaggio defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Caravaggio scores more
34%
level
27%
Luparense scores more
39%

Luparense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caravaggio vs Luparense

Luparense beat Caravaggio 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Caravaggio.