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Lund vs Kristianstad — Ettan - Södra 2019

Lund
Lund
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kristianstad
Kristianstad
9/14/2019Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 23Klostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Lund56%
×Draw22%
Kristianstad21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
1.89
Kristianstad
1.08

Lund creates 75% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 24 away

creates per match

Lund
1.74
Kristianstad
1.04

allows per match

Lund
1.12
Kristianstad
2.04

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Kristianstad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Kristianstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lund or draw
79%
Lund or Kristianstad
78%
Draw or Kristianstad
44%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
32%
Kristianstad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
85%
Lund 2+ goals
56%
Lund 3+ goals
29%
Kristianstad 1+ goals
66%
Kristianstad 2+ goals
29%
Kristianstad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
72%
Kristianstad (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.12 · 111 matches

Kristianstad away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 1.74 + Kristianstad defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kristianstad attack 1.04 + Lund defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lund scores more
56%
level
22%
Kristianstad scores more
21%

Lund at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Lund 3–1 Kristianstad

Lund beat Kristianstad 3-1 in Ettan - Södra on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.