Kristianstad 0–2 Lund: Result & Stats

Kristianstad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lund

4/7/2019

Ettan - Södra · Round 1Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kristianstad33%

×Draw25%

Lund42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KristianstadExpected goals in this matchLund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.56

Kristianstad

1.35

Lund

1.56

Lund creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 113 away

1.04

creates per match

1.42

1.70

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Kristianstad

1.04

Lund

1.42

allows per match

Kristianstad

1.70

Lund

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kristianstad+0.00on par

Lund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad ↓

Lund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kristianstad or draw

58%

Kristianstad or Lund

75%

Draw or Lund

67%

Winning margin

Kristianstad wins by 2+

15%

Lund wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kristianstad 1+ goals

74%

Kristianstad 2+ goals

39%

Kristianstad 3+ goals

15%

Lund 1+ goals

79%

Lund 2+ goals

46%

Lund 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad (draw refunded)

44%

Lund (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Lund away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad attack 1.04 + Lund defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lund attack 1.42 + Kristianstad defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kristianstad scores more

33%

level

25%

Lund scores more

42%

Lund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff