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Lund vs IFK Malmö — Ettan - Södra 2019

Lund
Lund
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
IFK Malmö
IFK Malmö
4/8/2022Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 2Klostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lund60%
×Draw22%
IFK Malmö18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
1.88
IFK Malmö
0.93

Lund creates 102% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 30 away

creates per match

Lund
1.74
IFK Malmö
0.73

allows per match

Lund
1.12
IFK Malmö
2.03

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

IFK Malmö →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lund or draw
82%
Lund or IFK Malmö
78%
Draw or IFK Malmö
40%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
35%
IFK Malmö wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
85%
Lund 2+ goals
56%
Lund 3+ goals
29%
IFK Malmö 1+ goals
61%
IFK Malmö 2+ goals
24%
IFK Malmö 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
77%
IFK Malmö (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.12 · 111 matches

IFK Malmö away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 1.74 + IFK Malmö defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

IFK Malmö attack 0.73 + Lund defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lund scores more
60%
level
22%
IFK Malmö scores more
18%

Lund at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Lund 2–1 IFK Malmö

Lund beat IFK Malmö 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.