IFK Malmö 2–1 Lund: Result & Stats | Ettan - Södra

IFK Malmö

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Lund

5/21/2021

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 8Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IFK Malmö34%

×Draw24%

Lund42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK MalmöExpected goals in this matchLund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.59

IFK Malmö

1.40

Lund

1.59

Lund creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

1.13

creates per match

1.42

1.77

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

IFK Malmö

1.13

Lund

1.42

allows per match

IFK Malmö

1.77

Lund

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Malmö+0.00on par

Lund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Malmö ↓

Lund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IFK Malmö or draw

58%

IFK Malmö or Lund

76%

Draw or Lund

66%

Winning margin

IFK Malmö wins by 2+

15%

Lund wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

IFK Malmö 1+ goals

75%

IFK Malmö 2+ goals

41%

IFK Malmö 3+ goals

17%

Lund 1+ goals

80%

Lund 2+ goals

47%

Lund 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

IFK Malmö (draw refunded)

45%

Lund (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Malmö at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Lund away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Malmö attack 1.13 + Lund defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lund attack 1.42 + IFK Malmö defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IFK Malmö scores more

34%

level

24%

Lund scores more

42%

Lund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff