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Lund vs Hässleholms IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lund
Lund
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
1/31/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lund46%
×Draw24%
Hässleholms IF31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
1.70
Hässleholms IF
1.35

Lund creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lund
1.73
Hässleholms IF
1.33

allows per match

Lund
1.36
Hässleholms IF
1.67

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Hässleholms IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lund or draw
69%
Lund or Hässleholms IF
76%
Draw or Hässleholms IF
54%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
24%
Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
82%
Lund 2+ goals
51%
Lund 3+ goals
24%
Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
74%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
39%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
60%
Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 1.73 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hässleholms IF attack 1.33 + Lund defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lund scores more
46%
level
24%
Hässleholms IF scores more
31%

Lund at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lund vs Hässleholms IF

Lund beat Hässleholms IF 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 31, 2026.