Hässleholms IF 0–1 Lund: Result & Stats

Hässleholms IF

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lund

5/1/2026

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 5Osteras IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hässleholms IF46%

×Draw24%

Lund29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hässleholms IFExpected goals in this matchLund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Hässleholms IF

1.63

Lund

1.25

Hässleholms IF creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 113 away

1.59

creates per match

1.42

1.09

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Hässleholms IF

1.59

Lund

1.42

allows per match

Hässleholms IF

1.09

Lund

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Lund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Lund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw

71%

Hässleholms IF or Lund

76%

Draw or Lund

54%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+

24%

Lund wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals

80%

Hässleholms IF 2+ goals

48%

Hässleholms IF 3+ goals

22%

Lund 1+ goals

71%

Lund 2+ goals

36%

Lund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)

61%

Lund (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Lund away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.66 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 1.59 + Lund defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lund attack 1.42 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more

46%

level

24%

Lund scores more

29%

Hässleholms IF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff