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Lund vs Angelholms FF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lund
Lund
FT
4 – 0
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
3/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lund68%
×Draw19%
Angelholms FF12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
2.12
Angelholms FF
0.77

Lund creates 175% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lund
1.73
Angelholms FF
0.17

allows per match

Lund
1.36
Angelholms FF
2.50

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lund or draw
88%
Lund or Angelholms FF
81%
Draw or Angelholms FF
32%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
44%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
88%
Lund 2+ goals
62%
Lund 3+ goals
35%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
54%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
18%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
85%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 0.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 1.73 + Angelholms FF defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Angelholms FF attack 0.17 + Lund defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lund scores more
68%
level
19%
Angelholms FF scores more
12%

Lund at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lund vs Angelholms FF

Lund beat Angelholms FF 4-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 21, 2026.