Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lund vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Lund
Lund
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
8/5/2024Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 16Klostergårdens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Lund52%
×Draw24%
Angelholms FF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lund
1.75
Angelholms FF
1.14

Lund creates 54% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 70 away

creates per match

Lund
1.74
Angelholms FF
1.16

allows per match

Lund
1.12
Angelholms FF
1.76

finishing

Lund+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lund ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lund or draw
75%
Lund or Angelholms FF
76%
Draw or Angelholms FF
48%

Winning margin

Lund wins by 2+
28%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lund 1+ goals
83%
Lund 2+ goals
52%
Lund 3+ goals
25%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
68%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
32%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lund (draw refunded)
68%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lund at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.12 · 111 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lund attack 1.74 + Angelholms FF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.75

Angelholms FF attack 1.16 + Lund defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lund scores more
52%
level
24%
Angelholms FF scores more
25%

Lund at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Lund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lund vs Angelholms FF

Lund beat Angelholms FF 4-2 in Ettan - Södra on August 5, 2024.

The match was played at Klostergårdens IP in Lund.