Lun Lok 0–10 Jia Hua: Result & Stats

Lun Lok

FT

0 – 10

HT: 0 – 6

Jia Hua

7/6/2025

Primeira Divisão · Relegation Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lun Lok8%

×Draw10%

Jia Hua82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lun LokExpected goals in this matchJia Hua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

4.03

Lun Lok

1.30

Jia Hua

4.03

Jia Hua creates 210% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

3.32

4.73

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Lun Lok

1.00

Jia Hua

3.32

allows per match

Lun Lok

4.73

Jia Hua

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lun Lok+0.00on par

Jia Hua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lun Lok ↓

Jia Hua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–46%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Lun Lok or draw

18%

Lun Lok or Jia Hua

90%

Draw or Jia Hua

92%

Winning margin

Lun Lok wins by 2+

3%

Jia Hua wins by 2+

66%

Team goals

Lun Lok 1+ goals

73%

Lun Lok 2+ goals

37%

Lun Lok 3+ goals

14%

Jia Hua 1+ goals

98%

Jia Hua 2+ goals

90%

Jia Hua 3+ goals

74%

Draw no bet

Lun Lok (draw refunded)

9%

Jia Hua (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lun Lok at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.73 · 22 matches

Jia Hua away — creates 3.32, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lun Lok attack 1.00 + Jia Hua defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Jia Hua attack 3.32 + Lun Lok defence 4.73 → ÷2 → 4.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lun Lok scores more

8%

level

10%

Jia Hua scores more

82%

Jia Hua at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Jia Hua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff